The Future is Designed (An ACORD 2020 Research Commentary)
What does the future look like from where you're standing? A bright, peaceful place marked by
growing prosperity and cooperation? Or a dark confusion of obscure conflicts
over resources?
Will the future
be radically different from the present, or more of the same? And while the seeds of the future must lie
around us today, where are those seeds – and which are the ones that
will take root and multiply?
Figuring what
the future may hold and preparing for it has been a major concern of humankind
ever since we started to think, plan – and worry. Our ability to imagine future
eventualities is what drives us to provide for our families, create
organizations and increase our knowledge. It's why we developed insurance,
which is a means of making the future more predictable, more certain.
But it's also
why we buy into visions of the future that feed our desires or that indulge our
fears. Sometimes it's hard to remember that no matter how good the research, or
how high the status of the research's sponsoring body, no one can foresee the
future with perfect accuracy. The best we can do is to create scenarios that are more
or less plausible, expose the reasoning behind those scenarios and present
options for dealing with them. Above all, we have to bear in mind that whatever we do today shapes the
future, including the way we react to scenarios of the future.
While we can't
have 100 % perfect foresight, we can make
use of our insight. As decision
makers, we're obligated to understand the possibilities awaiting us, and to
control, to the best of our ability, the forces shaping them.
ACORD members
have generously given their attention, experience and creativity to our 2020
Vision project over the last year. Together we have examined the patterns,
interests, constraints and innovations that are contributing to our unfolding
future. We've looked at big-picture, global factors and specific industry
sector issues.
During our Roundtable discussions with members, I've noticed that not only is the shape of the future up for grabs, but
that we also inhabit different
presents. We collaborate in order to get on the same page: that's
because as well as having interests in common, we also each have our own story
to write. If you're a large, global underwriter you're going to see the world differently
than a niche broker. Solution providers share some goals with their customers,
but not all of them. Our diversity is one reason why we make the effort to
share understanding and find common ground. The success of our industry relies
on our ability to balance
individual interests with the common good. And because we collaborate so
effectively in sharing our presents, we are well equipped to shape our joint
and several futures.